{"id":19729,"date":"2026-03-04T19:28:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T18:28:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roger-ari.com\/?p=19729"},"modified":"2026-03-05T19:33:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T18:33:48","slug":"detroit-dormuz-the-global-economic-time-bomb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roger-ari.com\/en\/detroit-dormuz-the-global-economic-time-bomb\/","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz: the time bomb of the global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since 28 February 2026, the world has been holding its breath. The American-Israeli strikes on Iran immediately placed a geographical point 50 kilometres wide at the centre of all economic anxieties: the Strait of Hormuz<\/a><\/strong>. This arm of the sea linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean is much more than just a maritime passage - it is the jugular artery of the world's energy supply. And today, this artery is bleeding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Strait<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In this article, we explain why the Strait of Hormuz represents a real time bomb for the global economy, what the possible scenarios are, and what this means in concrete terms for your wallet, your energy bill and the financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key figures: a passage worth billions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
20 %<\/strong> of the world's oil<\/strong> transits through Hormuz<\/td>20 M<\/strong> barrels\/day blocked<\/strong> each day of the blockade<\/td>+13 %<\/strong> rise in Brent<\/strong> as soon as the markets open<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

1. What exactly is the Strait of Hormuz?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz is a shipping channel barely 50 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, bordered to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Its shallowness - less than 60 metres - makes it vulnerable to any attempt to block or mine it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What makes this strait absolutely irreplaceable is the concentration of oil exporters who depend exclusively on it: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar<\/strong> have virtually no credible alternative for exporting their hydrocarbons. Around a quarter of the world's oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the region every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udca1 Did you know?<\/strong> Despite years of geopolitical warnings, no alternative pipeline has been developed on a sufficient scale to compensate for the closure of the Strait. Saudi and Emirati bypass capacity covers only a marginal fraction of the volumes usually transported.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. De facto closure: a bomb already in the making<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since 1 March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has not been technically closed - but it has been de facto shut down. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been broadcasting radio messages prohibiting ships from crossing it, and although these warnings are not legally binding, the result is the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What really happens on the water<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Maersk, the world's second largest shipowner, has suspended all sailings through the Straits. The United States has called on commercial ships to stay away from the Persian Gulf. Marine insurance companies have increased their premiums by around 50 %, and some are now refusing to insure ships that venture into the area. The attacks on 1 and 2 March targeted four separate ships, including one oil tanker directly affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Result: the net impact is an effective loss of 8 to 10 million barrels of crude oil supply per day<\/strong>, According to analysts at Rystad Energy, even if hypothetical bypass infrastructures were fully mobilised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcca Immediate impact on the markets<\/strong> At the start of trading on Monday 3 March, Brent crude soared by more than 13 % to over 82 dollars. European gas jumped by more than 39 %. The Paris Bourse lost 3.46 %, Frankfurt 3.44 %, and Seoul fell 7.24 % in two days.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3. Possible scenarios for the global economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 1 - Rapid resolution (within 2 weeks)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If American air and naval superiority succeed in rapidly securing the passage, a partial resumption of commercial traffic is conceivable. The markets could stabilise at around $85 to $90 a barrel while the diplomatic situation is clarified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 2 - Prolonged lockout (1 to 3 months)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is the scenario that economists fear most. A complete halt to exports from the Gulf States for several weeks would trigger a major supply crisis, even if the OECD's strategic reserves (90 days of theoretical stocks) were mobilised. The price of a barrel of oil could exceed 100 dollars for a long time, reviving the spectre of the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 3 - Prolonged tanker war<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Iran could opt for a strategy of attrition: not closing the Strait completely, but making passage sufficiently dangerous and costly to discourage shipowners. This scenario is reminiscent of the tanker wars of the 1980s. It would maintain a high risk premium on energy prices for months, fuelling global inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Who suffers most? The geography of vulnerability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Not all economies are equal in the face of this crisis. Here is a ranking of the most exposed regions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n